Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
نویسنده
چکیده
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and thus they were unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises in other regions, occur when the economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, which are evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
منابع مشابه
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We thank staffs of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, participants at the Federal Reserve System applied microeconomics conference, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Annual Bank Research Conference and seminar participants at Villanova University for valuable comments. The views presented in this paper are solely those of the autho...
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The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the management of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, or anyone else in the Federal Reserve System .
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Opinions stated in the Economic Review are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Material may be reprinted provided that the source is credited. Please send copies of reprinted materials to the editor.
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